Overall verdict
Neutral
6.3/10
1-year performance
+58.80%
Score breakdown
Up 58.8% over 1 year, 53% of the 52-week range.
Strongest: Profitability 8.8/10. Weakest: Financial strength 3.1/10.
28 analysts, target +0.2% vs the price.
Caterpillar Inc. provides construction and mining equipment, off-highway diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives in the United States and internationally. The Construction Industries segment offers asphalt pavers, cold planers, compactors, forestry machines, material handlers, motor graders, pipelayers, road reclaimers, telehandlers, track-type tractors, and track and wheel excavators ;
backhoe, compact track, skid steer, track-type, and wheel loaders ; and related parts and work tools. Its Resource Industries segment provides electric rope and hydraulic shovels, draglines, rotary drills, hard rock vehicles, mining trucks, wheel loaders, off-highway and articulated trucks, wide-body trucks, wheel tractor scrapers and dozers, and landfill and soil compactors ; machinery components, and wear and maintenance components ;
and technology products and services for fleet management, equipment management analytics, autonomous machine capabilities, safety services, and mining performance solutions. The Energy & Transportation segment offers reciprocating engine powered generator sets; reciprocating engines, drivetrain, and integrated systems and solutions; centrifugal gas compressors and related services; and diesel-electric locomotive components, and other rail-related products.
Its Financial Products segment provides operating and finance leases, revolving charge accounts, installment sale contracts, repair/rebuild financing, working capital loans, and wholesale financing; and insurance and risk management products and services. The All Other segment offers parts distribution; logistics and distribution services; electronics and control systems; dealer portfolio management; brand management and marketing strategy; and digital investment services. It also provides mining software solutions. The company was formerly known as Caterpillar Tractor Co. Caterpillar Inc. was incorporated in 1925 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.
Sector
Industrials
Industry
Machinery
Primary listing
Nyse
United States
CEO
Joseph Creed
Founded
1925
Employees
118 000
Revenue / employee
572 788 USD
Next earnings
October 29, 2026 (estimated)
Institutional holders
- BlackRock, Inc.8.26%
- STATE STREET CORP7.48%
- VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC6.54%
- STATE FARM MUTUAL AUTOMOBILE INSURANCE CO3.16%
- VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC2.62%
- GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC2.43%
- Fisher Asset Management, LLC2.16%
- MORGAN STANLEY1.63%
- JPMORGAN CHASE & CO1.59%
- Other institutions36.40%
- Rest of the register27.72%
4047 13F filings as of June 30, 2026: US managers above $100M, filed up to 45 days after quarter end. No insiders, no retail. A share on loan is declared by its lender and by whoever bought it from the short seller, so the total can exceed 100%.
Research uses the underlying stock’s market history. The purchase quote is calculated separately when you review your order.
52-week high
1073.46 USD
52-week low
491.30 USD
1-year performance
58.80%
Rising
Year-to-date performance
38.59%
Rising
Drawdown
-25.43%
Marked drawdown
Position in the 52-week range
53% of range
Against the world ETF
Over 17 years, from September 2009 to September 2026, the share did not clearly beat the world ETF once risk is accounted for. It earned much more, but shaking 2.4 times harder: once that risk is counted, it did about as well as the ETF.
$10,000 placed at the end of September 2009 are worth today
| Caterpillar | $238,537 |
| World ETF | $60,004 |
| S&P 500 | $97,541 |
| Risk-free placement | $12,831 |
The risk
- Shaking:the share moves 2.4 times as much as the world ETF.
- Worst fall:-43 % between January 2018 and March 2020. $10,000 placed at the top fell to $5,664. The world ETF, at worst: -34 %. Back to its high in 7 months.
Caterpillar earned 4 times as much as the world ETF since 2009
Value of $10,000 placed at the end of September 2009, dividends reinvested, in dollars
- Caterpillar: $238,537
- World ETF: $60,004
- S&P 500: $97,541
- Risk-free placement: $12,831
Based on past performance. This is not a recommendation.
Range: 377.97 USD - 421.41 USD (comparables only)
The price implies growth of 14.37% per year; the company grows at 25.00%.
Gross margin 32.8%, net margin 14.5%, ROIC 22.1%, ROE 57.0%.
Net margin
14.51%
Exceptional
Sector 5.97%|S&P 13.13%
Gross margin
32.83%
Exceptional
Return on equity (ROE)
56.99%
Exceptional
Sector 8.81%|S&P 16.52%
Return on invested capital (ROIC)
22.12%
Exceptional
Free cash flow margin (FCF)
12.04%
Exceptional
Profit-to-cash conversion (FCF conversion)
0.83x
Fair
Margin stability
5.3 pts
Uneven
Revenue to net income
Growth
7.9/10Revenue up 24.0% over 1 year, 10.1% a year over 5, EPS 28.0% a year over 5.
Revenue (trailing 12 months)
74.7Md USD
Revenue growth (1y)
23.98%
Hyper-growth
Revenue growth (3y)
13.73%
Moderate
EPS growth (1y)
68.10%
Hyper-growth
EPS CAGR (5y)
28.05%
Exceptional
EPS revisions (3 months)
9.65%
Sharply revised up
Valuation
3.1/10P/E 34.4x, forward P/E 29.9x, EV/EBITDA 25.7x, PEG 1.23. The multiple sits in the 92th percentile of its own 5-year history.
P/E (TTM)
34.4x
Expensive
Sector 20.0x|S&P 23.5x
Forward P/E
29.9x
Very expensive
EV / EBITDA
25.7x
Very expensive
Sector 11.5x|S&P 14.7x
PEG
1.23
Fair
Sector 0.39|S&P 0.87
Fair value (reverse DCF)
399.69 USD
Deeply overvalued
P/E vs its own 5-year history
among the 8% highest valuations
At its historical high
Market cap
368Md USD
Financial strength
3.1/10Cash covers 14.9% of the debt, net debt/EBITDA 2.5x.
Net debt / EBITDA
2.5x
Stretched
Gearing (net debt / equity)
198.17%
Stretched
Cash
6.7Md USD
Cash / market cap
1.82%
Stretched
Cash / total debt
14.87%
Stretched
Interest coverage
27.4x
Very solid
Net debt
38.4Md USD
Equity
19.4Md USD
Closed daily candles, 2 years
Last close on October 9, 2026: 800.47 USD
- MM20813.62
- MM50822.00
- MM200801.33
- RSI 1444.6
Top panel: closed candles, 20, 50 and 200-day moving averages, with volume in grey. Bottom panel: 14-day RSI with dashed 30 and 70 levels.
200-day average slope, 1 month
+3.10%
200-day average slope, 3 months
+12.65%
50-day average slope, 1 month
-4.38%
Price structure
Lower lows
Bullish RSI divergence
No
20-day volatility
2.06 % per day
Volatility change
-19.47%
Forecasts by fiscal year
| Fiscal year | EPS | Normalised EPS | Revenue | EBITDA | Net income |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.76 (17) | 27.20 (27) | 79 223 (17) | 17 888 (20) | 12 312 (13) |
| 2027 | 32.35 (18) | 32.42 (27) | 88 247 (17) | 20 924 (20) | 14 497 (14) |
Amounts in millions of USD, EPS in USD per share. In brackets, the number of analysts. Consensus as of October 8, 2026.
Same sub-industry: 201 companies behind the medians.
| # | Company | Code | Country | Overall / 10 | Fundamentals / 10 | Mkt cap | P/E | Net margin | Revenue growth | ROIC | Net debt / EBITDA | FCF yield | 1-year perf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 600150 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 44.7Md USD | 19.9x | 8.2 % | 7.9 % | 12.4 % | -9.9x | 4.2 % | 11.8 % | ||
| 2 | 2338 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 31.9Md USD | 16.7x | 5.4 % | 16.1 % | 9.6 % | 0.5x | 12.5 % | 73.9 % | ||
| 3 | WAB | 6.8 | 5.6 | 48.2Md USD | 38.4x | 10.6 % | 17.5 % | 7.8 % | 2.2x | 3.6 % | 42.9 % | ||
| 4 | VOLV B | 6.5 | 6.6 | 62.9Md USD | 17.9x | 7.6 % | 2.7 % | 11.2 % | 2.6x | 5.3 % | 16.8 % | ||
| 5 | CMI | 6.5 | 6.0 | 72.1Md USD | 26.7x | 7.8 % | 9.4 % | 13.9 % | 0.9x | 4.7 % | 20.4 % | ||
| 6 | 6301 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 41.8Md USD | 17.3x | 8.9 % | 14.7 % | 9.6 % | 1.3x | 3.6 % | 34.8 % | ||
| 7 | CAT | 6.3 | 5.6 | 368Md USD | 34.4x | 14.5 % | 24.0 % | 22.1 % | 2.5x | 2.4 % | 58.8 % | ||
| 8 | PCAR | 5.8 | 5.3 | 56.9Md USD | 22.7x | 9.0 % | 0.6 % | 7.2 % | 1.7x | 5.2 % | 12.2 % | ||
| 9 | DTG | 5.7 | 5.0 | 34.9Md USD | 12.4x | 2.5 % | 5.3 % | 2.7 % | 3.1x | 8.7 % | 18.7 % |
