Novartis AG

52-week high

132.68 CHF

52-week low

97.05 CHF

1-year performanceiPrice performanceWhat it is:The change in the share price over the period (1 year or year to date), in percent.How to read it:Above 0 the share gained value over the period; below 0 it lost value. Example: +15% means 100 euros invested at the start of the period are worth 115 today; -15%, that they are worth only 85.Rating bandsDeclining< 0%Rising> 0%

21.84%

Rising

Year-to-date performanceiPrice performanceWhat it is:The change in the share price over the period (1 year or year to date), in percent.How to read it:Above 0 the share gained value over the period; below 0 it lost value. Example: +15% means 100 euros invested at the start of the period are worth 115 today; -15%, that they are worth only 85.Rating bandsDeclining< 0%Rising> 0%

8.20%

Rising

DrawdowniDrawdownWhat it is:The fall from the recent high: how deep the current drawdown runs.How to read it:-20% means the share lost a fifth since its peak. A deep gap is an opportunity when the company is doing well, and an alarm when it is not.Rating bandsMajor drawdown< -30%Marked drawdown-30% - -15%Mild pullback-15% - -5%Near its high> -5%

-9.66%

Mild pullback

Position in the 52-week rangeiWhere the price sits between its 52-week low and high.

64% of range

Net marginiNet marginWhat it is:What is left of sales once everything is paid, production, overheads, interest and tax (net income divided by sales).How to read it:Of every 100 euros sold, this is what really comes back to the shareholder. A net margin well below the operating margin points to heavy debt or a high tax bill. The higher the margin, the better for the company.Rating bandspeer median 9.43%Negative< 0%Low0% - 6.60%Fair6.60% - 11.32%High11.32% - 13.20%Exceptional13.20% - 188.61%

23.29%

Exceptional

Gross marginiGross marginWhat it is:What is left of sales after the cost of making what was sold (sales minus cost of production, divided by sales).How to read it:It says how much pricing power the company has. It only compares within one line of business: 12% is normal in heavy industry and low in software. The higher the margin, the better for the company.Rating bandspeer median 47.69%Negative< 0%Low0% - 33.39%Fair33.39% - 57.23%High57.23% - 66.77%Exceptional66.77% - 953.88%

74.08%

Exceptional

Return on equity (ROE)iReturn on equity (ROE)What it is:The year's profit against shareholders' equity, the money shareholders put in and left in the company (capital plus retained earnings): a book value, not the share price.How to read it:The higher it is, the more the company grows its shareholders' money. But debt inflates it: a high ROE on a heavily indebted company is not real performance. Read it with the gearing (and with the ROIC, which debt does not flatter).Rating bandspeer median 6.16%Negative< 0%Low0% - 4.31%Fair4.31% - 7.39%High7.39% - 8.62%Exceptional8.62% - 123.12%

30.25%

Exceptional

Return on invested capital (ROIC)iReturn on invested capital (ROIC)What it is:Operating profit (after tax) against all the capital used to run the business, the shareholders' AND the borrowed. All the money goes in one pot, wherever it came from, to measure what the business really produces.How to read it:The best judge of how good a business is, because debt does not flatter it, unlike the ROE (which swells when the company borrows). Above 15% the company creates value; below its cost of capital (about 8%, the rent on money) it destroys value even while profitable, because it earns less than its money costs it.Rating bandspeer median 4.94%Negative< 0%Low0% - 3.46%Fair3.46% - 5.92%High5.92% - 6.91%Exceptional6.91% - 98.73%

17.20%

Exceptional

Free cash flow margin (FCF)iFree cash flow margin (FCF)What it is:The share of sales that turns into cash really available once capital spending is paid (free cash flow divided by sales).How to read it:The hardest figure to dress up. A company profitable on its income statement but with negative cash flow is burning cash to grow.Rating bandspeer median 9.46%Negative< 0%Low0% - 6.62%Fair6.62% - 11.35%High11.35% - 13.24%Exceptional13.24% - 189.13%

30.42%

Exceptional

Profit-to-cash conversion (FCF conversion)iProfit-to-cash conversion (FCF conversion)What it is:The share of the accounting profit that ends up as free cash (free cash flow divided by net income).How to read it:Around 1, profits really turn into cash. Lastingly below 0.7, the reported profit is largely on paper.Rating bandspeer median 0.98xLow< 0.49xFair0.49x - 0.88xHigh0.88x - 1.37xExceptional1.37x - 19.58x

1.31x

High

Margin stabilityiMargin stabilityWhat it is:How steady the margin stays from one year to the next, measured by its variation over several years (low variation = high stability).How to read it:A stable margin makes profit predictable and often reveals a real competitive advantage: a company that defends its prices and its costs. A saw-toothed margin, on the contrary, points to a cyclical or fragile business where one good year misleads; judge the average margin over a whole cycle rather than the snapshot of the moment.Rating bandsVery steady< 2%Steady2% - 5%Uneven5% - 10%Very uneven> 10%

13.3 pts

Very uneven

Revenue (trailing 12 months)

53.8Md USD

Revenue growth (1y)iRevenue growth (YoY)What it is:The change in sales over the last 12 months against the 12 before.How to read it:Compare it with the growth of the other companies in the sector: the higher it is, and the further above the sector, the better for the company.Rating bandspeer median 8.02%Declining< 0%Moderate0% - 5.62%Solid5.62% - 9.63%Strong9.63% - 11.23%Hyper-growth11.23% - 160.45%

-2.00%

Declining

Revenue growth (3y)iRevenue growth (3y)What it is:The average growth in sales per year over 3 years.How to read it:It smooths the jolts of a single year. A wide gap between the 3 years and the past year says the pace is changing, for better or for worse.Rating bandsDeclining< 0%Moderate0% - 15%Solid15% - 50%Strong50% - 120%Hyper-growth> 120%

12.35%

Moderate

EPS growth (1y)iEPS growth (1y)What it is:The change in earnings per share over one year.How to read it:Far less stable than sales growth: one exceptional item is enough to triple it or collapse it. Read it with the 5-year growth.Rating bandspeer median 4.34%Declining< 0%Moderate0% - 3.04%Solid3.04% - 5.20%Strong5.20% - 6.07%Hyper-growth6.07% - 86.74%

-20.94%

Declining

EPS CAGR (5y)iEPS CAGR (5y)What it is:The average growth in earnings per share per year over 5 years.How to read it:The underlying trend of profit. Well above sales growth, margins have widened; below it, they have eroded.Rating bandspeer median 6.68%Declining< 0%Low0% - 4.67%Fair4.67% - 8.01%Strong8.01% - 9.35%Exceptional9.35% - 133.55%

12.48%

Exceptional

EPS revisions (3 months)iEstimate revisionsWhat it is:The 3-month move in consensus EPS: fundamental momentum, the most predictive of them.How to read it:Positive, analysts are raising their profit expectations; negative, they are lowering them. A few percent is enough: prices often follow the direction of revisions over the following months.Rating bandsSharply revised down< -5%Revised down-5% - 0%Revised up0% - 5%Sharply revised up> 5%

0.99%

Revised up

P/E (TTM)iP/E (TTM)What it is:The share price divided by earnings per share: how many years of today's profit you pay for one share.How to read it:A P/E of 15 is like paying 15 years of profit up front. The lower it is, the cheaper the share, but cheap is not always a bargain: the market often expects profits to fall. It only compares between companies in the same line of business.Rating bandspeer median 27.52xCheap< 16.51xFair16.51x - 33.03xExpensive33.03x - 55.04xVery expensive55.04x - 550.42x

22.3x

Fair

Forward P/EiForward P/EWhat it is:The share price divided by the profit analysts expect for the coming fiscal year.How to read it:Well below the current P/E, it says the market expects a strong rise in profits. It rests on a forecast, so it can be proven wrong.Reported earnings, no adjustments. The basis Zonebourse and the press use.Rating bandspeer median 10.81xCheap< 6.49xFair6.49x - 12.98xExpensive12.98x - 21.63xVery expensive21.63x - 216.27x

20.4x

Expensive

EV / EBITDAiEV / EBITDAWhat it is:The value of the company, debt included, against its operating profit before depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA).How to read it:It includes the debt, unlike the P/E: it is the multiple to watch on an indebted company, and it compares two companies financed differently.Rating bandspeer median 16.08xCheap< 9.65xFair9.65x - 19.30xExpensive19.30x - 32.17xVery expensive32.17x - 321.66x

14.4x

Fair

PEGiPEGWhat it is:The P/E divided by the expected growth in earnings.How to read it:Below 1 the price paid stays reasonable given the growth; above 2 the growth is already dearly paid for. Useless on a company with no growth.Rating bandsGrowth unpriced< 1xFair1x - 1.50xExpensive1.50x - 2xVery expensive> 2x

1.78

Expensive

Fair value (reverse DCF)iFair value vs priceWhat it is:The median P/E this share itself carried over its recent fiscal years, against its P/E today. Above 1 = undervalued.How to read it:At 1.2 the stock trades 20% below its own history; at 0.8, 20% above. It compares the stock with itself: it says whether the moment is cheap, not whether the company is good.Where the DCF, the comparables and the analyst targets overlap. Methods agreeing: 2Rating bandsDeeply overvalued< 0.70xOvervalued0.70x - 0.90xFairly priced0.90x - 1.10xUndervalued1.10x - 1.40xDeeply undervalued> 1.40x

121.83 CHF

Fairly priced

Market cap

261Md USD

Net debt / EBITDAiNet debt / EBITDAWhat it is:How many years of operating profit it would take to repay the net debt.How to read it:Below 1 the debt is comfortable; above 3 it weighs, and leaves the company exposed to a rate rise or an air pocket.Rating bandsNet cash< -0.50xVery solid-0.50x - 0.50xSolid0.50x - 1.50xTight1.50x - 2.50xStretched> 2.50x

1.0x

Solid

Gearing (net debt / equity)iGearingWhat it is:Net debt against shareholders' equity.How to read it:It says how far the company is financed by debt rather than by its shareholders. Negative, it holds more cash than debt.Rating bandsNet cash< 0%Very solid0% - 30%Solid30% - 60%Tight60% - 100%Stretched> 100%

98.52%

Tight

CashiCash on hand: the safety buffer and the ability to invest.

7.7Md USD

Cash / market capiCash / market capWhat it is:The share of the price already covered by cash on hand: the safety cushion.How to read it:At 15%, a sixth of what the company is worth on the market is already in cash. The higher the share, the less a bad year threatens the company; above 50%, the market barely pays for the business itself.Rating bandsStretched< 3%Tight3% - 8%Solid8% - 15%Very solid> 15%

2.94%

Stretched

Cash / total debtiCash / debtWhat it is:The share of the debt that cash on hand would cover immediately.How to read it:At 100% the company could settle its debt with the cash in its till. It measures short-term resilience, not profitability.Rating bandsStretched< 15%Tight15% - 30%Solid30% - 60%Very solid60% - 100%Net cash> 100%

15.69%

Tight

Interest coverageiInterest coverWhat it is:How many times operating profit covers the interest on the debt.How to read it:Below 2 the interest absorbs most of the profit and the room for manoeuvre disappears; above 10 the debt has no notable effect.Rating bandsStretched< 2xTight2x - 5xSolid5x - 10xVery solid> 10x

15.4x

Very solid

Net debt

41.2Md USD

Equity

41.9Md USD

FCF yieldiFCF yieldWhat it is:The free cash against the market value (free cash flow divided by market capitalisation).How to read it:Read it as a rate. 6% means the company produces 6% of its own value in real cash every year. It is the P/E turned upside down, and harder to dress up.Rating bandspeer median 2.62%Negative< 0%Low0% - 1.83%Fair1.83% - 3.15%High3.15% - 3.67%Very high3.67% - 52.43%

6.27%

Very high

Dividend yieldiDividend yieldWhat it is:The dividend paid each year against the share price: the cash you receive just for holding the share, before any rise or fall in the price.How to read it:Compare it first with a risk-free investment (a 3% dividend appeals less when a bond pays 4%). A dividend is only good when earnings cover it, and it is only one part of the return, beside share buybacks.Rating bandsNone< 0.01%Low0.01% - 1%Fair1% - 3%High3% - 6%Very high> 6%

3.09%

High

Free cash flow (trailing 12 months)iWhat it is:The money left after running the business and investing (operating cash flow minus capital spending).How to read it:This is what the company can freely return to shareholders, repay or reinvest. The figure closest to real money.

16.3Md USD

Profitable years in a rowiWhat it is:The number of consecutive fiscal years, counting back from the latest one published, with a positive net income.How to read it:A long streak says the company makes money through the cycles, not only in one good year; it makes the future return more reliable and the dividend more sustainable.

20 years

Years of dividend increasesiWhat it is:The number of consecutive fiscal years, counting back from the latest one published, where the dividend per share rose year on year.How to read it:From 10 years on, the company held its increases through at least one full cycle. A long streak binds: the market reads a first cut as a strong signal.

19 years