Overall verdict
Neutral
5.2/10
1-year performance
-34.33%
Score breakdown
Down 34.3% over 1 year, 6% of the 52-week range.
Strongest: Profitability 9.2/10. Weakest: Growth 1.6/10.
20 analysts, target +0.6% vs the price.
Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure. The company retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across states in the United States and the District of Columbia.
It is also involved in electricity generation, wholesale energy purchases and sales, commodity risk management, fuel procurement, and fuel logistics management activities. In addition, the company engages in decommissioning and reclamation of retired generation facilities, including mines, and battery removal and remediation activities. It serves approximately 5 million customers with a generation capacity of approximately 44,000 megawatts with a portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. The company was formerly known as Vistra Energy Corp. and changed its name to Vistra Corp. in July 2020. Vistra Corp. was founded in 1882 and is based in Irving, Texas.
Sector
Utilities
Industry
Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers
Primary listing
Nyse
United States
CEO
James Burke
Founded
1882
Employees
6 390
Revenue / employee
2.7M USD
Next earnings
November 5, 2026 (estimated)
Institutional holders
- BlackRock, Inc.8.63%
- VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC6.36%
- VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC5.03%
- STATE STREET CORP5.01%
- FMR LLC4.21%
- GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC2.68%
- MORGAN STANLEY2.64%
- NORGES BANK1.73%
- UBS Group AG1.60%
- Other institutions46.54%
- Rest of the register15.57%
1405 13F filings as of June 30, 2026: US managers above $100M, filed up to 45 days after quarter end. No insiders, no retail. A share on loan is declared by its lender and by whoever bought it from the short seller, so the total can exceed 100%.
Research uses the underlying stock’s market history. The purchase quote is calculated separately when you review your order.
52-week high
217.10 USD
52-week low
132.66 USD
1-year performance
-34.33%
Declining
Year-to-date performance
-15.82%
Declining
Drawdown
-36.63%
Major drawdown
Position in the 52-week range
6% of range
Range: 127.27 USD - 136.51 USD (3 methods agree)
The price implies growth of 5.35% per year; the company grows at 10.93%.
Gross margin 20.2%, net margin 12.6%, ROIC 10.1%, ROE 43.1%.
Net margin
12.61%
Exceptional
Sector 6.70%|S&P 12.97%
Gross margin
20.18%
Fair
Return on equity (ROE)
43.07%
Exceptional
Sector 7.69%|S&P 16.52%
Return on invested capital (ROIC)
10.12%
Exceptional
Free cash flow margin (FCF)
12.82%
Exceptional
Profit-to-cash conversion (FCF conversion)
1.02x
High
Margin stability
10.3 pts
Very uneven
Revenue to net income
Growth
1.6/10Revenue up 28.0% over 1 year, 8.9% a year over 5, EPS 10.9% a year over 5.
Revenue (trailing 12 months)
17.6Md USD
Revenue growth (1y)
27.96%
Hyper-growth
Revenue growth (3y)
-4.85%
Declining
EPS growth (1y)
-7.82%
Declining
EPS CAGR (5y)
10.93%
Exceptional
EPS revisions (3 months)
-1.00%
Revised down
Valuation
4.4/10P/E 23.2x, forward P/E 14.5x, EV/EBITDA 12.1x, PEG 2.12. The multiple sits in the 78th percentile of its own 5-year history.
P/E (TTM)
23.2x
Expensive
Sector 14.5x|S&P 23.0x
Forward P/E
14.5x
Expensive
EV / EBITDA
12.1x
Fair
Sector 11.4x|S&P 14.5x
PEG
2.12
Very expensive
Sector 1.62|S&P 0.86
Fair value (reverse DCF)
133.59 USD
Fairly priced
P/E vs its own 5-year history
among the 22% highest valuations
Pricier than usual
Market cap
46.3Md USD
Financial strength
4.3/10Cash covers 2.4% of the debt, net debt/EBITDA 4.6x.
Net debt / EBITDA
4.6x
Very solid
Gearing (net debt / equity)
353.46%
Stretched
Cash
476M USD
Cash / market cap
1.03%
Stretched
Cash / total debt
2.39%
Stretched
Interest coverage
3.1x
Tight
Net debt
19.4Md USD
Equity
5.5Md USD
Closed daily candles, 2 years
Last close on September 24, 2026: 137.94 USD
- MM20142.58
- MM50145.88
- MM200155.78
- RSI 1441.4
Top panel: closed candles, 20, 50 and 200-day moving averages, with volume in grey. Bottom panel: 14-day RSI with dashed 30 and 70 levels.
200-day average slope, 1 month
-2.23%
200-day average slope, 3 months
-8.26%
50-day average slope, 1 month
-4.62%
Price structure
Lower lows
Bullish RSI divergence
No
20-day volatility
2.03 % per day
Volatility change
-28.06%
Forecasts by fiscal year
| Fiscal year | EPS | Normalised EPS | Revenue | EBITDA | Net income |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.47 (9) | 8.62 (4) | 22 465 (8) | 7 231 (12) | 3 218 (7) |
| 2027 | 10.38 (10) | 10.37 (5) | 23 912 (10) | 8 049 (12) | 3 452 (8) |
Amounts in millions of USD, EPS in USD per share. In brackets, the number of analysts. Consensus as of September 23, 2026.
Same sub-industry: 74 companies behind the medians.
| # | Company | Code | Country | Overall / 10 | Fundamentals / 10 | Mkt cap | P/E | Net margin | Revenue growth | ROIC | Net debt / EBITDA | FCF yield | 1-year perf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NTPC | 7.0 | 6.6 | 33.0Md USD | 11.4x | 14.5 % | 7.8 % | — | 4.5x | — | -7.0 % | ||
| 2 | RWE | 6.5 | 6.0 | 53.3Md USD | 13.8x | 21.3 % | -9.1 % | 6.2 % | 1.3x | -8.5 % | 61.0 % | ||
| 3 | ADANIPOWER | 6.2 | 5.2 | 41.2Md USD | 27.3x | 26.3 % | 2.6 % | — | 2.4x | — | 39.0 % | ||
| 4 | GULF | 5.7 | 3.4 | 27.8Md USD | 24.0x | 26.5 % | 15.5 % | 6.0 % | 15.7x | 3.3 % | 39.9 % | ||
| 5 | UN0 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 22.8Md USD | 11.8x | 2.8 % | 35.5 % | 13.5 % | -4.4x | 4.0 % | 36.0 % | ||
| 6 | VST | 5.2 | 4.8 | 46.3Md USD | 23.2x | 12.6 % | 28.0 % | 10.1 % | 4.6x | 4.9 % | -34.3 % | ||
| 7 | 1816 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 28.7Md USD | 13.8x | 14.7 % | 19.3 % | 2.9 % | 7.9x | -8.3 % | 15.4 % | ||
| 8 | 601985 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 27.1Md USD | 24.4x | 9.2 % | -5.9 % | 1.4 % | 9.1x | -25.6 % | 4.7 % | ||
| 9 | 2082 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 35.2Md USD | 83.1x | 19.7 % | 14.4 % | 2.9 % | 8.0x | -0.8 % | -21.5 % |
