Overall verdict
Sell
2.8/10
1-year performance
-55.63%
Score breakdown
Down 55.6% over 1 year, 1% of the 52-week range.
Strongest: Shareholder return 8.4/10. Weakest: Growth 0.0/10.
National CineMedia, Inc., through its subsidiary, National CineMedia, LLC, operates cinema advertising network in North America. The company engages in the sale of advertising to national, regional, and local businesses in Noovie, a cinema advertising and entertainment show seen on movie screens ; and sells advertising on its Lobby Entertainment Network, a series of strategically placed screens located in movie theater lobbies, as well as other forms of advertising and promotions in theatre lobbies.
It also sells digital advertising, including through NCM Boost, a data, insights and analytics platform that utilizes data ; NCM Boost, a audience accelerator digital product ; NCM Boomerang, retargeting solution designed to amplify post-theatre engagement ; NCM Bullseye, an AI-generated creative to deliver dynamic and hyper-localized messaging ; and NCM Blueprint, a real-time renovation permit data to identify homeowners who are actively engaged in remodelling projects. It offers its services to national and local sales groups. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Centennial, Colorado.
Sector
Communication Services
Industry
Media
Primary listing
Nasdaq
United States
CEO
Thomas Lesinski
Founded
2006
Employees
248
Revenue / employee
980 645 USD
Next earnings
November 11, 2026 (estimated)
Institutional holders
- Blantyre Capital Ltd28.86%
- HOTCHKIS & WILEY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC10.05%
- Orbis Allan Gray Ltd9.90%
- BlackRock, Inc.6.14%
- VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC3.42%
- WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP3.42%
- GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC2.25%
- BARCLAYS PLC2.14%
- Luxor Capital Group, LP2.08%
- Other institutions20.79%
- Rest of the register10.96%
107 13F filings as of June 30, 2026: US managers above $100M, filed up to 45 days after quarter end. No insiders, no retail. A share on loan is declared by its lender and by whoever bought it from the short seller, so the total can exceed 100%.
Research uses the underlying stock’s market history. The purchase quote is calculated separately when you review your order.
52-week high
4.56 USD
52-week low
1.87 USD
1-year performance
-55.63%
Declining
Year-to-date performance
-51.54%
Declining
Drawdown
-58.55%
Major drawdown
Position in the 52-week range
1% of range
Against the world ETF
Over 20 years, from February 2007 to September 2026, the share did clearly worse than the world ETF once risk is accounted for. It earned less, while shaking 4.3 times harder.
$10,000 placed at the end of February 2007 are worth today
| National CineMedia | $85 |
| World ETF | $47,812 |
| S&P 500 | $77,570 |
| Risk-free placement | $13,491 |
The risk
- Shaking:the share moves 4.3 times as much as the world ETF.
- Worst fall:-100 % between May 2007 and March 2023. $10,000 placed at the top fell to $46. The world ETF, at worst: -53 %. The share has not returned to its high yet.
National CineMedia earned less than the world ETF since 2007
Value of $10,000 placed at the end of February 2007, dividends reinvested, in dollars
- National CineMedia: $85
- World ETF: $47,812
- S&P 500: $77,570
- Risk-free placement: $13,491
Share price without dividends; the world ETF and the index reinvest theirs. A dividend payer is therefore understated here.
Based on past performance. This is not a recommendation.
Range: 2.50 USD - 3.14 USD (3 methods agree)
The price implies growth of -6.58% per year; the company grows at 21.89%.
Gross margin 27.8%, the company loses 3.1% of its revenue, ROIC -2.1%, ROE -2.2%.
Net margin
-3.05%
Negative
Sector 0.89%|S&P 13.15%
Gross margin
27.83%
Fair
Return on equity (ROE)
-2.22%
Negative
Sector 3.17%|S&P 16.60%
Return on invested capital (ROIC)
-2.12%
Negative
Free cash flow margin (FCF)
8.51%
Exceptional
Margin stability
134.0 pts
Very uneven
Revenue to net income
Growth
0.0/10Revenue up 12.7% over 1 year, 21.9% a year over 5.
Revenue (trailing 12 months)
249M USD
Revenue growth (1y)
12.74%
Hyper-growth
Revenue growth (3y)
-2.41%
Declining
EPS growth (1y)
—
EPS CAGR (5y)
—
EPS revisions (3 months)
—
Valuation
3.9/10The company loses money, so no valuation multiple can be read: a negative P/E is not a discount.
P/E (TTM)
—
N/A (loss)
Sector 13.4x|S&P 24.1x
Forward P/E
—
N/A (loss)
EV / EBITDA
7.5x
Fair
Sector 6.8x|S&P 15.1x
PEG
—
Sector 0.25|S&P 0.92
Fair value (reverse DCF)
2.67 USD
Deeply undervalued
Market cap
178M USD
Financial strength
7.5/10Cash covers 210.5% of the debt, net debt/EBITDA -0.6x.
Net debt / EBITDA
-0.6x
Net cash
Gearing (net debt / equity)
-7.24%
Net cash
Cash
46.1M USD
Cash / market cap
25.93%
Very solid
Cash / total debt
210.50%
Net cash
Interest coverage
-25.3x
Stretched
Net debt
-24.2M USD
Equity
334M USD
Closed daily candles, 2 years
Last close on October 23, 2026: 1.89 USD
- MM202.13
- MM502.33
- MM2003.22
- RSI 1429.1
Top panel: closed candles, 20, 50 and 200-day moving averages, with volume in grey. Bottom panel: 14-day RSI with dashed 30 and 70 levels.
200-day average slope, 1 month
-5.66%
200-day average slope, 3 months
-12.63%
50-day average slope, 1 month
-23.15%
Price structure
Lower lows
Bullish RSI divergence
No
20-day volatility
3.03 % per day
Volatility change
-29.88%
Forecasts by fiscal year
| Fiscal year | EPS | Normalised EPS | Revenue | EBITDA | Net income |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.02 (2) | 0.17 (1) | 266 (4) | 44 (4) | -5 (3) |
| 2027 | 0.07 (2) | 0.12 (1) | 272 (4) | 47 (4) | 6 (2) |
Amounts in millions of USD, EPS in USD per share. In brackets, the number of analysts. Consensus as of October 19, 2026.
Same sub-industry: 326 companies behind the medians.
| # | Company | Code | Country | Overall / 10 | Fundamentals / 10 | Mkt cap | P/E | Net margin | Revenue growth | ROIC | Net debt / EBITDA | FCF yield | 1-year perf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MCHN | 7.4 | 7.6 | 260M USD | 6.7x | 7.0 % | -1.4 % | 14.8 % | 0.7x | — | 94.4 % | ||
| 2 | 917 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 196M USD | 4.7x | 18.2 % | 24.2 % | 16.9 % | -4.1x | 20.9 % | -85.5 % | ||
| 3 | 1948 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 273M USD | 12.0x | 1.4 % | 23.2 % | 10.0 % | -0.1x | -33.6 % | -16.9 % | ||
| 4 | IGL | 5.1 | 6.0 | 246M USD | 9.5x | 4.0 % | -1.8 % | 6.7 % | 3.2x | 12.9 % | -17.0 % | ||
| 5 | VRV | 4.4 | 3.0 | 231M USD | Not meaningful (loss) | -1.6 % | 43.6 % | -1.1 % | 3.7x | 22.7 % | -55.6 % | ||
| 6 | BF | 4.1 | 3.8 | 273M USD | 38.3x | 2.0 % | 12.7 % | 1.7 % | 2.6x | 1.0 % | 0.0 % | ||
| 7 | NCMI | 2.8 | 3.1 | 178M USD | Not meaningful (loss) | -3.1 % | 12.7 % | -2.1 % | -0.6x | 11.9 % | -55.6 % | ||
| 8 | 603825 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 259M USD | Not meaningful (loss) | -36.8 % | -10.8 % | -148.9 % | -3.1x | -23.1 % | -27.1 % | ||
| 9 | TTGT | 1.8 | 1.9 | 268M USD | Not meaningful (loss) | -36.8 % | -3.2 % | -24.9 % | 1.0x | 1.3 % | -34.3 % |
