Overall verdict
Neutral
6.2/10
1-year performance
-59.74%
Score breakdown
Down 59.7% over 1 year, 11% of the 52-week range.
Strongest: Growth 9.4/10. Weakest: Profitability 3.9/10.
6 analysts, target +1.1% vs the price.
Federal National Mortgage Association provides financing solutions for residential mortgages in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Single-Family and Multifamily. It offers mortgage acquisitions and securitizations; and credit risk and loss management services.
The company also engages in mortgage securitization transactions, including lender swap, portfolio securitization, and structured securitization transactions; and credit risk and loss management services. Federal National Mortgage Association was incorporated in 1938 and is based in Washington, District Of Columbia.
Sector
Financials
Industry
Financial Services
Primary listing
Lse
United States
CEO
Peter Akwaboah
Founded
1938
Employees
7 000
Revenue / employee
22.9M USD
Next earnings
October 27, 2026 (estimated)
Institutional holders
- CapWealth Advisors, LLC1.46%
- Matthew 25 Management Corp0.03%
- FNY Investment Advisers, LLC0.01%
- Pinnacle Holdings, LLC0.01%
- RNC CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC0.01%
- Ratan Capital Management LP0.01%
- IVY LANE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC0.01%
- First National Trust Co0.01%
- Crossingbridge Advisors, LLC0.01%
- Other institutions0.01%
- Rest of the register98.44%
26 13F filings as of June 30, 2026: US managers above $100M, filed up to 45 days after quarter end. No insiders, no retail. A share on loan is declared by its lender and by whoever bought it from the short seller, so the total can exceed 100%.
Research uses the underlying stock’s market history. The purchase quote is calculated separately when you review your order.
52-week high
13.05 USD
52-week low
3.60 USD
1-year performance
-59.74%
Declining
Year-to-date performance
-53.70%
Declining
Drawdown
-64.14%
Major drawdown
Position in the 52-week range
11% of range
Against the world ETF
Over 17 years, from September 2009 to August 2026, the share did not do better than the world ETF once risk is accounted for. It earned less, while shaking 8.7 times harder.
10,000 € placed at the end of September 2009 are worth today
| Federal National | 50 615 € |
| World ETF | 74 620 € |
| S&P 500 | 123 025 € |
| Risk-free placement | 11 288 € |
The risk
- Shaking:the share moves 8.7 times as much as the world ETF.
- Worst fall:-92 % between November 2016 and December 2022. 10,000 € placed at the top fell to 778 €. The world ETF, at worst: -34 %. Back to its high in 25 months.
Federal National earned less than the world ETF since 2009
Value of 10,000 euros placed at the end of September 2009, dividends reinvested, in euros
- Federal National: 50 615 €
- World ETF: 74 620 €
- S&P 500: 123 025 €
- Risk-free placement: 11 288 €
Share price without dividends; the world ETF and the index reinvest theirs. A dividend payer is therefore understated here.
Based on past performance. This is not a recommendation.
Range: 6.25 USD - 15.02 USD (2 methods agree)
The price implies growth of -30.00% per year; the company grows at -10.00%.
Gross margin 97.7%, net margin 51.2%, ROIC 0.4%, ROE 13.8%.
Net margin
51.18%
Exceptional
Sector 24.02%|S&P 12.97%
Gross margin
97.68%
High
Return on equity (ROE)
13.83%
Fair
Sector 12.03%|S&P 16.52%
Return on invested capital (ROIC)
0.35%
Low
Free cash flow margin (FCF)
18.98%
Exceptional
Profit-to-cash conversion (FCF conversion)
0.37x
Fair
Margin stability
17.3 pts
Very uneven
Revenue to net income
Growth
9.4/10Revenue up 2.4% over 1 year, 8.0% a year over 5.
Revenue (trailing 12 months)
29.5Md USD
Revenue growth (1y)
2.39%
Moderate
Revenue growth (3y)
37.46%
Solid
EPS growth (1y)
—
EPS CAGR (5y)
—
EPS revisions (3 months)
—
Valuation
9.0/10P/E 121.6x, forward P/E 117.0x, EV/EBITDA 27.1x. The multiple sits in the 64th percentile of its own 5-year history.
P/E (TTM)
121.6x
Very expensive
Sector 10.3x|S&P 23.0x
Forward P/E
117.0x
Cheap
EV / EBITDA
27.1x
Expensive
Sector 15.2x|S&P 14.5x
PEG
—
Sector 0.71|S&P 0.86
Fair value (reverse DCF)
7.98 USD
Deeply undervalued
P/E vs its own 5-year history
among the 36% highest valuations
Pricier than usual
Market cap
5.8Md USD
Cash covers 1.0% of the debt, net debt/EBITDA 27.7x.
Net debt / EBITDA
27.7x
Stretched
Gearing (net debt / equity)
3560.13%
Stretched
Cash
40.8Md USD
Cash / market cap
704.85%
Very solid
Cash / total debt
0.97%
Stretched
Net debt
4.1T USD
Equity
116Md USD
Closed daily candles, 2 years
Last close on September 24, 2026: 4.75 USD
- MM205.57
- MM505.88
- MM2007.34
- RSI 1430.4
Top panel: closed candles, 20, 50 and 200-day moving averages, with volume in grey. Bottom panel: 14-day RSI with dashed 30 and 70 levels.
200-day average slope, 1 month
-6.25%
200-day average slope, 3 months
-19.42%
50-day average slope, 1 month
-5.34%
Price structure
Lower lows
Bullish RSI divergence
No
20-day volatility
3.29 % per day
Volatility change
-35.22%
Forecasts by fiscal year
| Fiscal year | EPS | Normalised EPS | Revenue | EBITDA | Net income |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.04 (2) | 0.04 (1) | 29 292 (4) | — | 0 (1) |
| 2027 | 0.00 (2) | 0.00 (1) | 29 956 (5) | — | 0 (1) |
Amounts in millions of USD, EPS in USD per share. In brackets, the number of analysts. Consensus as of August 4, 2026.
Same sub-industry: 38 companies behind the medians.
| # | Company | Code | Country | Overall / 10 | Fundamentals / 10 | Mkt cap | P/E | Net margin | Revenue growth | ROIC | Net debt / EBITDA | FCF yield | 1-year perf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RDN | 6.8 | 6.7 | 4.6Md USD | 8.9x | 34.0 % | 92.6 % | 10.7 % | — | 30.4 % | -7.1 % | ||
| 2 | ACT | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.6Md USD | 10.1x | 54.5 % | 4.1 % | 11.3 % | — | 11.0 % | 23.4 % | ||
| 3 | ESNT | 6.3 | 6.2 | 5.9Md USD | 9.1x | 52.5 % | 13.9 % | 11.0 % | — | 14.0 % | 0.4 % | ||
| 4 | FNMA | 6.2 | 7.1 | 5.8Md USD | 121.6x | 51.2 % | 2.4 % | 0.4 % | 27.7x | 529.3 % | -59.7 % | ||
| 5 | MTG | 6.2 | 6.6 | 6.0Md USD | 9.2x | 59.2 % | -2.9 % | 12.4 % | — | 11.8 % | 1.4 % | ||
| 6 | LICHSGFIN | 5.7 | 6.4 | 3.3Md USD | 5.4x | 20.0 % | -2.0 % | — | 10.0x | — | -3.3 % | ||
| 7 | BAJAJHFL | 5.6 | 6.3 | 7.3Md USD | 25.5x | 23.2 % | 17.1 % | — | 10.0x | — | -26.0 % | ||
| 8 | PFSI | 4.7 | 3.9 | 3.4Md USD | 9.0x | 8.2 % | 0.4 % | 3.9 % | 10.0x | -40.2 % | -46.8 % | ||
| 9 | RKT | 4.1 | 2.7 | 34.4Md USD | 80.8x | 4.9 % | 102.1 % | 1.4 % | 25.1x | -2.2 % | -39.0 % |
