Overall verdict
Buy
7.8/10
1-year performance
-5.13%
Score breakdown
Down 5.1% over 1 year, 38% of the 52-week range.
Strongest: Financial strength 10.0/10. Weakest: Shareholder return 4.7/10.
18 analysts, target +0.3% vs the price.
YTO Express Group Co.,Ltd. provides express delivery services to franchisees in China and internationally. It operates through Express Business, Freight Forwarding Business, and Aviation Business segments. The company offers express services; warehousing and supply chain services, such as transfer services, warehousing system, and integrated warehousing and delivery; industry solutions, including platform and scene solutions; value added services comprising front, terminal, and full chain services.
It also provides digital products consisting of YTO Neighbors, Yunmeng, and CRM and ERP; procurement, factoring, and payment settlement services; air, rail, multimodal, sea, and land freight; charter, airport operations, and self-operated routers; Yi Tong and shared products; and customs services. YTO Express Group Co.,Ltd. was founded in 2000 and is based in Shanghai, China.
Sector
Industrials
Industry
Air Freight and Logistics
Primary listing
Sse
China
CEO
—
Founded
2000
Employees
21 409
Revenue / employee
3.4M CNY
Next earnings
October 23, 2026 (estimated)
Research uses the underlying stock’s market history. The purchase quote is calculated separately when you review your order.
52-week high
22.86 CNY
52-week low
14.90 CNY
1-year performance
-5.13%
Declining
Year-to-date performance
9.27%
Declining
Drawdown
-21.61%
Marked drawdown
Position in the 52-week range
38% of range
Range: 11.10 CNY - 13.38 CNY (2 methods agree)
The price implies growth of 13.07% per year; the company grows at 17.04%.
Gross margin 11.0%, net margin 7.2%, ROIC 15.1%, ROE 16.3%.
Net margin
7.24%
Exceptional
Sector 3.57%|S&P 12.97%
Gross margin
10.98%
Fair
Return on equity (ROE)
16.33%
Exceptional
Sector 9.95%|S&P 16.52%
Return on invested capital (ROIC)
15.13%
Exceptional
Free cash flow margin (FCF)
2.10%
Low
Profit-to-cash conversion (FCF conversion)
0.29x
Low
Margin stability
0.9 pts
Very steady
Revenue to net income
Growth
8.0/10Revenue up 6.9% over 1 year, 16.6% a year over 5, EPS 17.0% a year over 5.
Revenue (trailing 12 months)
78.3Md CNY
Revenue growth (1y)
6.92%
Moderate
Revenue growth (3y)
40.55%
Solid
EPS growth (1y)
84.19%
Hyper-growth
EPS CAGR (5y)
17.04%
Exceptional
EPS revisions (3 months)
1.73%
Revised up
Valuation
8.7/10P/E 10.8x, forward P/E 9.8x, EV/EBITDA 6.2x, PEG 0.64. The multiple sits in the 43th percentile of its own 5-year history.
P/E (TTM)
10.8x
Cheap
Sector 19.0x|S&P 23.0x
Forward P/E
9.8x
Cheap
EV / EBITDA
6.2x
Fair
Sector 10.1x|S&P 14.5x
PEG
0.64
Growth unpriced
Sector 1.01|S&P 0.86
Fair value (reverse DCF)
12.24 CNY
Deeply overvalued
P/E vs its own 5-year history
among the 43% lowest valuations
In line with its history
Market cap
60.9Md CNY
Financial strength
10.0/10Cash covers 115.8% of the debt, net debt/EBITDA -0.2x.
Net debt / EBITDA
-0.2x
Very solid
Gearing (net debt / equity)
-3.51%
Net cash
Cash
9.9Md CNY
Cash / market cap
16.33%
Very solid
Cash / total debt
115.83%
Net cash
Net debt
-1.4Md CNY
Equity
38.7Md CNY
Closed daily candles, 2 years
Last close on September 24, 2026: 17.92 CNY
- MM2017.31
- MM5017.81
- MM20018.21
- RSI 1454.0
Top panel: closed candles, 20, 50 and 200-day moving averages, with volume in grey. Bottom panel: 14-day RSI with dashed 30 and 70 levels.
200-day average slope, 1 month
+0.36%
200-day average slope, 3 months
+0.22%
50-day average slope, 1 month
+1.74%
Price structure
higher-low
Bullish RSI divergence
No
20-day volatility
2.22 % per day
Volatility change
+0.36%
Forecasts by fiscal year
| Fiscal year | EPS | Normalised EPS | Revenue | EBITDA | Net income |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.84 (11) | 1.79 (3) | 82 519 (16) | 10 962 (8) | 6 276 (11) |
| 2027 | 2.02 (15) | 2.14 (4) | 89 230 (16) | 12 024 (10) | 7 037 (14) |
Amounts in millions of CNY, EPS in CNY per share. In brackets, the number of analysts. Consensus as of September 24, 2026.
Same sub-industry: 91 companies behind the medians.
| # | Company | Code | Country | Overall / 10 | Fundamentals / 10 | Mkt cap | P/E | Net margin | Revenue growth | ROIC | Net debt / EBITDA | FCF yield | 1-year perf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ZTO | 8.3 | 9.4 | 14.7Md USD | 10.7x | 19.0 % | 30.7 % | 14.8 % | -1.1x | — | 3.8 % | ||
| 2 | 600233 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 9.1Md USD | 10.8x | 7.2 % | 6.9 % | 15.1 % | -0.2x | 2.7 % | -5.1 % | ||
| 3 | UPS | 6.6 | 6.8 | 81.5Md USD | 17.8x | 5.1 % | 7.7 % | 10.7 % | 1.9x | 6.7 % | 9.2 % | ||
| 4 | EXPD | 6.5 | 6.9 | 24.4Md USD | 27.4x | 7.6 % | 32.1 % | 35.1 % | -0.7x | 3.8 % | 51.8 % | ||
| 5 | DHL | 6.4 | 6.6 | 73.0Md USD | 17.7x | 4.4 % | 12.8 % | 8.6 % | 2.3x | 9.7 % | 50.1 % | ||
| 6 | 002352 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 22.0Md USD | 13.7x | 3.4 % | 5.7 % | 8.4 % | 0.4x | 10.2 % | -23.8 % | ||
| 7 | CHRW | 6.0 | 5.3 | 17.5Md USD | 28.6x | 3.7 % | 19.3 % | 19.5 % | 1.4x | 3.8 % | 8.5 % | ||
| 8 | FDX | 6.0 | 5.4 | 69.0Md USD | 15.7x | 4.7 % | 12.5 % | 6.8 % | 2.7x | 7.4 % | 48.8 % | ||
| 9 | DSV | 5.4 | 3.5 | 44.1Md USD | 42.9x | 2.5 % | 23.7 % | 3.6 % | 3.2x | 3.4 % | -10.6 % |
