Overall verdict
Buy
6.6/10
1-year performance
-18.69%
Score breakdown
Down 18.7% over 1 year, 23% of the 52-week range.
Strongest: Profitability 9.2/10. Weakest: Growth 3.3/10.
36 analysts, target +0.4% vs the price.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. The company sells food and beverages, such as burritos, burrito bowls, quesadillas, tacos, and salads, as well as kids' meals, chips, and sides. It also offers Mexican-inspired meals using responsibly sourced meats, such as chicken, beef, and pork under the Responsibly Raised brand.
In addition, the company provides digital ordering through its website, mobile app, and third-party delivery platforms. It operates in the United States, Canada, France, Germany, South Korea, and the United Kingdom. Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, California.
Sector
Consumer Discretionary
Industry
Hotels, Restaurants and Leisure
Primary listing
Nyse
United States
CEO
Scott Boatwright
Founded
1993
Employees
130 301
Revenue / employee
91 523 USD
Next earnings
October 28, 2026
Institutional holders
- BlackRock, Inc.9.88%
- VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC6.37%
- CALIFORNIA STATE TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM5.05%
- JPMORGAN CHASE & CO5.03%
- VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC4.59%
- STATE STREET CORP4.23%
- Capital World Investors3.48%
- PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/2.94%
- GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC2.77%
- Other institutions47.52%
- Rest of the register8.15%
1196 13F filings as of June 30, 2026: US managers above $100M, filed up to 45 days after quarter end. No insiders, no retail. A share on loan is declared by its lender and by whoever bought it from the short seller, so the total can exceed 100%.
Research uses the underlying stock’s market history. The purchase quote is calculated separately when you review your order.
52-week high
42.81 USD
52-week low
28.04 USD
1-year performance
-18.69%
Declining
Year-to-date performance
-12.19%
Declining
Drawdown
-26.51%
Marked drawdown
Position in the 52-week range
23% of range
Against the world ETF
Over 17 years, from September 2009 to August 2026, the share did not do better than the world ETF once risk is accounted for. It earned more, but shaking 2.8 times harder: for the risk taken, the ETF paid better.
10,000 € placed at the end of September 2009 are worth today
| Chipotle Mexican | 246 307 € |
| World ETF | 74 620 € |
| S&P 500 | 123 025 € |
| Risk-free placement | 11 288 € |
The risk
- Shaking:the share moves 2.8 times as much as the world ETF.
- Worst fall:-66 % between July 2015 and October 2017. 10,000 € placed at the top fell to 3 427 €. The world ETF, at worst: -34 %. Back to its high in 21 months.
Chipotle Mexican earned 3 times as much as the world ETF since 2009
Value of 10,000 euros placed at the end of September 2009, dividends reinvested, in euros
- Chipotle Mexican: 246 307 €
- World ETF: 74 620 €
- S&P 500: 123 025 €
- Risk-free placement: 11 288 €
Based on past performance. This is not a recommendation.
Range: 24.86 USD - 24.98 USD (2 methods agree)
The price implies growth of 8.62% per year; the company grows at 25.00%.
Gross margin 21.1%, net margin 11.4%, ROIC 18.5%, ROE 49.6%.
Net margin
11.42%
Exceptional
Sector 4.17%|S&P 12.97%
Gross margin
21.09%
Low
Return on equity (ROE)
49.56%
Exceptional
Sector 11.11%|S&P 16.52%
Return on invested capital (ROIC)
18.53%
Exceptional
Free cash flow margin (FCF)
12.63%
Exceptional
Profit-to-cash conversion (FCF conversion)
1.11x
High
Margin stability
4.2 pts
Steady
Revenue to net income
Growth
3.3/10Revenue up 9.3% over 1 year, 14.8% a year over 5, EPS 35.5% a year over 5.
Revenue (trailing 12 months)
12.4Md USD
Revenue growth (1y)
9.31%
Solid
Revenue growth (3y)
38.11%
Solid
EPS growth (1y)
-2.32%
Declining
EPS CAGR (5y)
35.50%
Exceptional
EPS revisions (3 months)
1.40%
Revised up
Valuation
5.5/10P/E 29.0x, forward P/E 27.9x, EV/EBITDA 18.5x, PEG 0.82. The multiple sits in the 5th percentile of its own 5-year history.
P/E (TTM)
29.0x
Expensive
Sector 22.4x|S&P 23.0x
Forward P/E
27.9x
Expensive
EV / EBITDA
18.5x
Expensive
Sector 12.2x|S&P 14.5x
PEG
0.82
Growth unpriced
Sector 0.89|S&P 0.86
Fair value (reverse DCF)
24.92 USD
Overvalued
P/E vs its own 5-year history
among the 5% lowest valuations
Far cheaper than usual
Market cap
41.4Md USD
Financial strength
3.9/10Cash covers 12.5% of the debt, net debt/EBITDA 1.7x.
Net debt / EBITDA
1.7x
Solid
Gearing (net debt / equity)
215.54%
Stretched
Cash
678M USD
Cash / market cap
1.64%
Stretched
Cash / total debt
12.51%
Stretched
Net debt
4.7Md USD
Equity
2.2Md USD
Closed daily candles, 2 years
Last close on September 24, 2026: 32.01 USD
- MM2035.61
- MM5034.84
- MM20034.96
- RSI 1432.6
Top panel: closed candles, 20, 50 and 200-day moving averages, with volume in grey. Bottom panel: 14-day RSI with dashed 30 and 70 levels.
200-day average slope, 1 month
+1.10%
200-day average slope, 3 months
-1.89%
50-day average slope, 1 month
+2.61%
Price structure
higher-low
Bullish RSI divergence
No
20-day volatility
1.97 % per day
Volatility change
-22.41%
Forecasts by fiscal year
| Fiscal year | EPS | Normalised EPS | Revenue | EBITDA | Net income |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.13 (13) | 1.15 (35) | 13 027 (34) | 2 301 (27) | 1 443 (15) |
| 2027 | 1.37 (16) | 1.37 (36) | 14 436 (34) | 2 656 (27) | 1 710 (17) |
Amounts in millions of USD, EPS in USD per share. In brackets, the number of analysts. Consensus as of September 16, 2026.
Same sub-industry: 125 companies behind the medians.
| # | Company | Code | Country | Overall / 10 | Fundamentals / 10 | Mkt cap | P/E | Net margin | Revenue growth | ROIC | Net debt / EBITDA | FCF yield | 1-year perf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CPG | 6.9 | 7.5 | 51.3Md USD | 25.3x | 4.2 % | 9.7 % | 15.2 % | 1.4x | 6.0 % | -6.6 % | ||
| 2 | CMG | 6.6 | 5.8 | 41.4Md USD | 29.0x | 11.4 % | 9.3 % | 18.5 % | 1.7x | 3.8 % | -18.7 % | ||
| 3 | YUM | 6.1 | 5.9 | 38.4Md USD | 17.7x | 25.4 % | 12.2 % | 62.0 % | 4.4x | 4.4 % | -7.7 % | ||
| 4 | DASH | 5.8 | 4.8 | 82.0Md USD | 99.4x | 5.3 % | 35.6 % | 6.7 % | -1.5x | 2.6 % | -29.5 % | ||
| 5 | SBUX | 5.5 | 4.9 | 107Md USD | 54.3x | 5.2 % | -1.4 % | 14.2 % | 4.4x | 3.4 % | 9.4 % | ||
| 6 | MCD | 5.2 | 5.1 | 169Md USD | 19.4x | 31.7 % | 3.8 % | 16.8 % | 3.7x | 4.6 % | -21.6 % | ||
| 7 | QSP.UN | 5.1 | 5.4 | 33.7Md USD | 20.7x | 18.4 % | 4.5 % | 8.5 % | 5.0x | 4.7 % | 17.8 % | ||
| 8 | 3690 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 57.3Md USD | Not meaningful (loss) | -9.9 % | 21.5 % | -15.9 % | 2.9x | — | -27.5 % | ||
| 9 | ETERNAL | 4.8 | 3.6 | 34.4Md USD | 718.0x | 0.6 % | 182.0 % | — | -3.0x | — | -0.3 % |
