Overall verdict
Neutral
5.6/10
1-year performance
+13.27%
Score breakdown
Up 13.3% over 1 year, 39% of the 52-week range.
Strongest: Profitability 7.1/10. Weakest: Financial strength 2.7/10.
36 analysts, target +0.2% vs the price.
Starbucks Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a roaster, marketer, and retailer of coffee internationally. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Channel Development. Its stores offer coffee, tea, and other beverages, roasted whole beans and ground coffees, complementary food, packaged coffees, single-serve products, and ready-to-drink beverages; and various food products, such as pastries, breakfast sandwiches, and lunch items.
The company also licenses its trademarks through licensed stores, and grocery and foodservice accounts. The company offers its products under the Starbucks Coffee, Teavana, Seattle's Best Coffee, Ethos, and Starbucks Reserve brands. Starbucks Corporation was founded in 1971 and is based in Seattle, Washington.
Sector
Consumer Discretionary
Industry
Hotels, Restaurants and Leisure
Primary listing
Nasdaq
United States
CEO
Brian Niccol
Founded
1971
Employees
381 000
Revenue / employee
97 538 USD
Next earnings
October 29, 2026
Institutional holders
- Capital Research Global Investors9.62%
- Capital World Investors8.02%
- BlackRock, Inc.7.30%
- VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC6.53%
- STATE STREET CORP4.32%
- Invesco Ltd.3.38%
- VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC2.64%
- GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC2.51%
- FMR LLC2.31%
- Other institutions38.81%
- Rest of the register14.56%
2388 13F filings as of June 30, 2026: US managers above $100M, filed up to 45 days after quarter end. No insiders, no retail. A share on loan is declared by its lender and by whoever bought it from the short seller, so the total can exceed 100%.
Research uses the underlying stock’s market history. The purchase quote is calculated separately when you review your order.
52-week high
110.51 USD
52-week low
77.99 USD
1-year performance
13.27%
Rising
Year-to-date performance
7.75%
Rising
Drawdown
-17.88%
Marked drawdown
Position in the 52-week range
39% of range
Against the world ETF
Over 17 years, from September 2009 to September 2026, the share did not clearly beat the world ETF once risk is accounted for. It earned more, but shaking 1.9 times harder: for the risk taken, the ETF paid better.
$10,000 placed at the end of September 2009 are worth today
| Starbucks | $124,067 |
| World ETF | $60,004 |
| S&P 500 | $97,541 |
| Risk-free placement | $12,831 |
The risk
- Shaking:the share moves 1.9 times as much as the world ETF.
- Worst fall:-44 % between July 2021 and May 2022. $10,000 placed at the top fell to $5,632. The world ETF, at worst: -34 %. The share has not returned to its high yet.
Starbucks earned 2 times as much as the world ETF since 2009
Value of $10,000 placed at the end of September 2009, dividends reinvested, in dollars
- Starbucks: $124,067
- World ETF: $60,004
- S&P 500: $97,541
- Risk-free placement: $12,831
Based on past performance. This is not a recommendation.
Range: 40.74 USD - 47.65 USD (2 methods agree)
The price implies growth of 9.58% per year; the company grows at 15.70%.
Gross margin 16.5%, net margin 5.2%, ROIC 14.2%, ROE -25.8%.
Net margin
5.17%
High
Sector 4.25%|S&P 13.13%
Gross margin
16.53%
Low
Return on equity (ROE)
-25.82%
Negative
Sector 11.59%|S&P 16.52%
Return on invested capital (ROIC)
14.19%
Exceptional
Free cash flow margin (FCF)
9.51%
Fair
Profit-to-cash conversion (FCF conversion)
1.84x
Exceptional
Margin stability
4.1 pts
Steady
Revenue to net income
Growth
6.6/10Revenue down 1.4% over 1 year, 9.6% a year over 5, EPS 15.7% a year over 5.
Revenue (trailing 12 months)
38.3Md USD
Revenue growth (1y)
-1.43%
Declining
Revenue growth (3y)
15.31%
Solid
EPS growth (1y)
86.59%
Hyper-growth
EPS CAGR (5y)
15.70%
Fair
EPS revisions (3 months)
9.12%
Sharply revised up
Valuation
2.8/10P/E 52.3x, forward P/E 40.2x, EV/EBITDA 24.5x, PEG 3.33. The multiple sits in the 87th percentile of its own 5-year history.
P/E (TTM)
52.3x
Very expensive
Sector 22.7x|S&P 23.5x
Forward P/E
40.2x
Expensive
EV / EBITDA
24.5x
Expensive
Sector 12.2x|S&P 14.7x
PEG
3.33
Very expensive
Sector 0.98|S&P 0.87
Fair value (reverse DCF)
44.30 USD
Deeply overvalued
P/E vs its own 5-year history
among the 13% highest valuations
At its historical high
Market cap
103Md USD
Financial strength
2.7/10Cash covers 16.1% of the debt, net debt/EBITDA 4.4x.
Net debt / EBITDA
4.4x
Stretched
Gearing (net debt / equity)
—
Cash
3.6Md USD
Cash / market cap
3.49%
Tight
Cash / total debt
16.09%
Tight
Interest coverage
5.4x
Solid
Net debt
18.8Md USD
Equity
-7.7Md USD
Closed daily candles, 2 years
Last close on October 9, 2026: 90.75 USD
- MM2095.03
- MM50101.26
- MM20098.92
- RSI 1428.8
Top panel: closed candles, 20, 50 and 200-day moving averages, with volume in grey. Bottom panel: 14-day RSI with dashed 30 and 70 levels.
200-day average slope, 1 month
+1.04%
200-day average slope, 3 months
+5.96%
50-day average slope, 1 month
-3.79%
Price structure
higher-low
Bullish RSI divergence
No
20-day volatility
1.22 % per day
Volatility change
-20.02%
Forecasts by fiscal year
| Fiscal year | EPS | Normalised EPS | Revenue | EBITDA | Net income |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.13 (15) | 3.13 (33) | 38 533 (31) | 6 637 (23) | 3 557 (15) |
Amounts in millions of USD, EPS in USD per share. In brackets, the number of analysts. Consensus as of October 8, 2026.
Same sub-industry: 130 companies behind the medians.
| # | Company | Code | Country | Overall / 10 | Fundamentals / 10 | Mkt cap | P/E | Net margin | Revenue growth | ROIC | Net debt / EBITDA | FCF yield | 1-year perf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CPG | 7.3 | 7.5 | 53.1Md USD | 26.3x | 4.2 % | 9.7 % | 15.2 % | 1.4x | 5.8 % | -4.5 % | ||
| 2 | CMG | 6.4 | 5.9 | 40.0Md USD | 29.1x | 11.4 % | 9.3 % | 18.5 % | 1.7x | 3.9 % | -23.0 % | ||
| 3 | YUM | 6.0 | 5.8 | 39.5Md USD | 18.2x | 25.4 % | 12.2 % | 62.0 % | 4.4x | 4.2 % | -0.4 % | ||
| 4 | DASH | 5.9 | 4.8 | 85.1Md USD | 103.2x | 5.3 % | 35.6 % | 6.7 % | -1.5x | 2.5 % | -29.9 % | ||
| 5 | QSR | 5.8 | 5.2 | 32.2Md USD | 21.0x | 14.4 % | 4.6 % | 7.3 % | 5.2x | 4.7 % | 5.4 % | ||
| 6 | SBUX | 5.6 | 4.9 | 103Md USD | 52.3x | 5.2 % | -1.4 % | 14.2 % | 4.4x | 3.5 % | 13.3 % | ||
| 7 | QSP.UN | 5.4 | 5.4 | 33.4Md USD | 20.7x | 18.4 % | 4.5 % | 8.5 % | 5.0x | 4.8 % | 12.0 % | ||
| 8 | MCD | 5.3 | 5.2 | 166Md USD | 19.1x | 31.7 % | 3.8 % | 16.8 % | 3.7x | 4.7 % | -19.9 % | ||
| 9 | 3690 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 56.2Md USD | Not meaningful (loss) | -9.9 % | 22.0 % | -15.9 % | 2.9x | — | -31.8 % |
