Overall verdict
Buy
6.7/10
1-year performance
-10.23%
Score breakdown
Down 10.2% over 1 year, 26% of the 52-week range.
Strongest: Profitability 10.0/10. Weakest: Financial strength 3.7/10.
27 analysts, target +0.3% vs the price.
Waste Connections, Inc. provides non-hazardous waste collection, transfer, and disposal services in the United States and Canada. It offers collection services to residential, commercial, municipal, industrial, and exploration and production (E&P) customers ; landfill disposal services ; and recycling services for various recyclable materials, including compost, cardboard, mixed paper, plastic containers, glass bottles, and ferrous and aluminum metals.
The company owns and operates transfer stations that receive, compact, and/or load waste to be transported to landfills or treatment facilities through truck, rail, or barge ; develops, owns, and operates projects or the beneficial reuse of landfill gas through landfill network ; and intermodal services for the movement of cargo and solid waste containers. In addition, it provides E&P waste treatment, recovery, and disposal services for waste created through the initial drilling and completion of an oil or natural gas well, such as drilling fluids, drill cuttings, completion fluids, and flowback water ;
production wastes and produced water during a well's operating life ; contaminated soils that require treatment during site reclamation ; and substances, which require clean-up after a spill, reserve pit clean-up, or pipeline rupture. Waste Connections, Inc. was founded in 1997 and is based in Woodbridge, Canada.
Sector
Industrials
Industry
Commercial Services and Supplies
Primary listing
Nyse
Canada
CEO
Ronald Mittelstaedt
Founded
1997
Employees
24 214
Revenue / employee
397 813 USD
Next earnings
October 21, 2026 (estimated)
Research uses the underlying stock’s market history. The purchase quote is calculated separately when you review your order.
52-week high
179.74 USD
52-week low
146.89 USD
1-year performance
-10.23%
Declining
Year-to-date performance
-11.05%
Declining
Drawdown
-13.45%
Mild pullback
Position in the 52-week range
26% of range
Against the world ETF
Over 10 years, from June 2016 to August 2026, the share did not clearly beat the world ETF once risk is accounted for. It earned less, while shaking 1.3 times harder.
$10,000 placed at the end of June 2016 are worth today
| Waste Connections | $34,418 |
| World ETF | $35,264 |
| S&P 500 | $42,987 |
| Risk-free placement | $12,717 |
The risk
- Shaking:the share moves 1.3 times as much as the world ETF.
- Worst fall:-32 % between February 2020 and March 2020. $10,000 placed at the top fell to $6,828. The world ETF, at worst: -34 %. Back to its high in 6 months.
Waste Connections kept pace with the world ETF since 2016
Value of $10,000 placed at the end of June 2016, dividends reinvested, in dollars
- Waste Connections: $34,418
- World ETF: $35,264
- S&P 500: $42,987
- Risk-free placement: $12,717
Share price without dividends; the world ETF and the index reinvest theirs. A dividend payer is therefore understated here.
Based on past performance. This is not a recommendation.
Range: 121.57 USD - 133.59 USD (comparables only)
The price implies growth of 12.16% per year; the company grows at 25.00%.
Quality and profitability
10.0/10Gross margin 29.5%, net margin 10.9%, ROIC 6.1%, ROE 13.0%.
Net margin
10.86%
Exceptional
Sector 5.30%|S&P 12.97%
Gross margin
29.47%
Fair
Return on equity (ROE)
12.95%
Exceptional
Sector 5.44%|S&P 16.52%
Return on invested capital (ROIC)
6.11%
Exceptional
Free cash flow margin (FCF)
11.93%
Exceptional
Profit-to-cash conversion (FCF conversion)
1.10x
Exceptional
Margin stability
2.5 pts
Steady
Revenue to net income
Growth
4.0/10Revenue up 2.0% over 1 year, 10.9% a year over 5, EPS 39.0% a year over 5.
Revenue (trailing 12 months)
9.5Md USD
Revenue growth (1y)
1.97%
Moderate
Revenue growth (3y)
39.08%
Solid
EPS growth (1y)
-0.18%
Declining
EPS CAGR (5y)
39.04%
Exceptional
EPS revisions (3 months)
2.54%
Revised up
Valuation
6.2/10P/E 38.6x, forward P/E 33.6x, EV/EBITDA 16.5x, PEG 0.99. The multiple sits in the 3th percentile of its own 5-year history.
P/E (TTM)
38.6x
Expensive
Sector 22.0x|S&P 23.0x
Forward P/E
33.6x
Fair
EV / EBITDA
16.5x
Expensive
Sector 13.6x|S&P 14.6x
PEG
0.99
Growth unpriced
Sector 0.79|S&P 0.86
Fair value (reverse DCF)
127.58 USD
Overvalued
P/E vs its own 5-year history
among the 3% lowest valuations
Far cheaper than usual
Market cap
39.2Md USD
Financial strength
3.7/10Cash covers 1.0% of the debt, net debt/EBITDA 3.0x.
Net debt / EBITDA
3.0x
Solid
Gearing (net debt / equity)
120.44%
Stretched
Cash
98.1M USD
Cash / market cap
0.25%
Stretched
Cash / total debt
1.02%
Stretched
Interest coverage
4.8x
Tight
Net debt
9.5Md USD
Equity
7.9Md USD
Closed daily candles, 2 years
Last close on September 29, 2026: 155.56 USD
- MM20159.02
- MM50163.96
- MM200164.30
- RSI 1433.4
Top panel: closed candles, 20, 50 and 200-day moving averages, with volume in grey. Bottom panel: 14-day RSI with dashed 30 and 70 levels.
200-day average slope, 1 month
-0.81%
200-day average slope, 3 months
-1.32%
50-day average slope, 1 month
-2.04%
Price structure
higher-low
Bullish RSI divergence
No
20-day volatility
0.81 % per day
Volatility change
-42.96%
Forecasts by fiscal year
| Fiscal year | EPS | Normalised EPS | Revenue | EBITDA | Net income |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.63 (11) | 5.64 (27) | 10 044 (26) | 3 337 (26) | 1 176 (14) |
| 2027 | 5.58 (11) | 6.21 (27) | 10 623 (26) | 3 586 (26) | 1 406 (14) |
Amounts in millions of USD, EPS in USD per share. In brackets, the number of analysts. Consensus as of September 28, 2026.
Same sub-industry: 128 companies behind the medians.
| # | Company | Code | Country | Overall / 10 | Fundamentals / 10 | Mkt cap | P/E | Net margin | Revenue growth | ROIC | Net debt / EBITDA | FCF yield | 1-year perf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLH | 7.6 | 7.2 | 16.5Md USD | 38.0x | 7.0 % | 11.9 % | 7.6 % | 2.0x | 2.8 % | 34.5 % | ||
| 2 | TTEK | 6.9 | 7.0 | 8.7Md USD | 20.4x | 8.6 % | -4.5 % | 15.7 % | 1.2x | 6.3 % | 1.8 % | ||
| 3 | VLTO | 6.9 | 7.0 | 23.7Md USD | 24.5x | 17.3 % | 7.5 % | 17.8 % | 0.6x | 4.4 % | -8.4 % | ||
| 4 | RSG | 6.8 | 7.1 | 64.9Md USD | 30.0x | 12.9 % | 4.6 % | 8.7 % | 2.6x | 4.1 % | -7.0 % | ||
| 5 | ROL | 6.8 | 7.5 | 14.4Md USD | 27.3x | 13.6 % | 7.9 % | 24.1 % | 1.1x | 4.3 % | -46.6 % | ||
| 6 | WCN | 6.7 | 6.5 | 39.2Md USD | 38.6x | 10.9 % | 2.0 % | 6.1 % | 3.0x | 2.9 % | -10.2 % | ||
| 7 | WM | 6.7 | 6.6 | 82.7Md USD | 29.3x | 11.1 % | 4.0 % | 8.9 % | 3.1x | 4.3 % | -6.2 % | ||
| 8 | RTO | 5.1 | 6.0 | 10.3Md USD | 21.6x | 4.5 % | 1.2 % | 3.3 % | 2.5x | 7.3 % | -14.7 % | ||
| 9 | GFL | 4.4 | 2.4 | 18.4Md USD | Not meaningful (loss) | -2.6 % | 16.3 % | -1.1 % | 4.4x | 1.5 % | -9.8 % |
